Der Schlusskurs von Bitcoin für November unter 60.000 US-Dollar bedeutete, dass das bisher besonders genaue Floor-Modell von PlanB endgültig gebrochen wurde.
At the same time, however, the analyst confirmed that the more popular stock-to-flow model is still in place as BTC is on its way towards $ 100,000.
PlanB’s floor model fails
PlanB is one of the most popular analysts in the cryptocurrency space, best known for the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model that it published in early 2019. However, he also published another model, which he called the “worst-case scenario” “in July of this year.
Also known as the floor model, it is based on technicals like the 200-day moving average and BTC closed at $ 47,000 in August, $ 43,000 in September and $ 63,000 in October.
The first two months were spot on. BTC closed at $ 61,000 in October, which was still very close to the model’s forecast price, and PlanB said it was “good enough” for him.
However, the actual November closing price of well under $ 60,000 was vastly different from what the model was for – $ 98,000. Hence, the analyst admitted that this was the model’s first miss after being stuck in recent months.
Floor model first miss (after nailing in August, September, October). No model is perfect, but this is a huge mistake and the first in 10 years! Runaway / black swan? I give the floor model another month.
S2F model unaffected and on track to $ 100,000.
Watch out for trolls confusing the Floor and S2F models! https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
– PlanB (@ $ 100 trillion) December 1, 2021
S2F on the track
As mentioned above, the floor model works separately from the stock-to-flow model, which views inventory as the size of existing reserves (or inventory) and flow as the annual supply of new bitcoins to the market.
It’s even more bullish as the original version sees Bitcoin tapping $ 100,000 by the end of the year. The updated stock-to-flow cross-asset model, which introduced different phases in Bitcoin’s development, forecast a price of $ 288,000 by 2024.
Although Bitcoin is still battling below $ 60,000 at the time of this writing, PlanB believes the original S2F has not been broken as the asset is on its way towards $ 100,000. If BTC is actually to break into a six-digit price range, it would have to increase its USD value by more than 66% in the next 30 days.
Source: Crypto News Deutsch