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Crypto winter unlikely as ‘amazing’ user growth dwarfs internet adoption rate: macro guru Raoul Pal

Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal expects there will be billions of new users by the end of the decade cryptocurrencies despite all the nervousness investors are currently feeling about the markets.
In a new discussion on recession and inflation on the Real Vision Finance YouTube channel, the macro guru digs into historical data and compares crypto adoption rates to the early years of the internet.

“Crypto adoption is now massively outpacing the internet. It’s growing at about 165% per year versus 85% for the internet over the same period. This is the fastest introduction of any technology in all of human history.

We’re going to get to five billion users by 2030, which means full adoption of crypto is a technology for the Internet of Value and a host of other things.

And a billion users is coming in 2024 [even when] reduce the growth rate again. I don’t expect growth to stay as hot as it was. In fact, growth has slowed.

I think that’s the scale of what’s happening. And you can own this, unlike the internet, it’s a lot easier to own because you own a piece of the network by owning the crypto.”
Source: Real Vision Finance/YouTube
Pal continues to plan for early-stage growth and sees unprecedented expansion as crypto overtakes the internet by 76% to 43% later this year.

“The next chart shows it in a more dramatic way that isn’t on a logarithmic scale. And we estimate that the internet has been growing at 43% per year since around year six.

Year zero in this case is 5 million users, we took crypto and internet users at 5 million and then looked at their growth as they took on. After the sixth year, intent grew at 43% per year.

If crypto grows 43% per year, it hits year 10, which is four years at 1.2 billion. But if it continues to grow 76%, which is a slowdown in growth compared to the 165% it’s doing now, that’s 2.8 billion.

These are amazing numbers, the world has never seen anything like it. Whatever happens, whatever the trend growth rate is, it’s exploding, so the macro background is massive.”
Crypto winter unlikely as ‘amazing’ user growth dwarfs internet adoption rate: macro guru Raoul Pal, Crypto Trading NewsSource: Real Vision Finance/YouTube
The Real Vision CEO warns that the total cryptocurrency market cap isn’t growing right now, and while this isn’t a true crypto winter, investors should be prepared to experience one bear market to survive.

The macro investor concludes his remarks by saying that until network activity picks up, people can expect flattened adoption rates in the crypto space.

“If I look at how we look at the network, total crypto volume [have] trended sideways for some time. Sideways moves tend to lead to sideways markets, and that’s exactly what we’ve had with crypto.

Volume has to grow over time to show network adoption and we haven’t seen that.”

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Source: Crypto News Deutsch

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