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Here’s why Bitcoin will experience another 80% drop in the next “crypto winter,” according to quant analyst PlanB

The quantitative analyst PlanB says that Bitcoin will see a severe bear market despite claims to the contrary by other experts.
In a new interview on the business and investment YouTube channel FamilyOffice, PlanB highlights some signals that tell him that Bitcoin will eventually penetrate deep into bear territory.

“First of all, I’m one of the few who actually believes there’s another one Bear market will give a crash like we’ve seen a couple of times. A lot of people are saying right now that we are done with the four year cycle and that we will no longer have this kind of volatility and this kind of deep bear markets.

I think we’re going to have these bear markets. You can see it in the option prices. It’s priced in with 100% volatility. A few months ago when China gave up [Bitcoin] We decreased mining by 50% or more. So we almost had it. We had a 50% crash right there. That tells me that 80% [correction] if something really big happens, it cannot be ruled out. “

PlanB says the next crash will likely happen after Bitcoin hits price targets for its stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) models. The stock-to-flow model predicts the price of an asset by dividing the supply that already exists by the supply that comes onto the market each year.

Meanwhile, PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset Model (S2FX) examines the phase transitions of Bitcoin from proof of concept to a financial asset to create a valuation for BTC.

Says PlanB,

“I think we have to go up a lot, at least to get to the stock-to-flow model of $ 100,000 and $ 288,000. But after that we’ll go back down 80% … I think that’s part of the deal, and it’s part of investor greed and fear as well. People won’t change.

It becomes FOMO. give [fear of missing out]. For example, if we hit $ 100,000 in a few months, people will do FOMO, and it will go up. Then something terrible happens: another ban, another China or India ban or something. Everyone is afraid again and fear sets in. So I think that fear and greed will never go away with Bitcoin. “


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Source: Crypto News Deutsch

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