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Market overview of the last week
Yesterday the calendar was bright. Bank of Japan meeting minutes didn’t offer much, but they added further fuel USD/JPY which rose back above 131 in the early Asian session yesterday. China’s trade balance grew but failed to meet expectations after the Chinese economy contracted last month.
The Sentix indicator of investor confidence continued to deteriorate in the euro zone this month, falling deeper into negative territory for the third month. USD had a few shakes yesterday but remains bullish. Although the main event yesterday was the selling pressure on risky assets that resumed decline and continued to fall, such as stock markets.
The data agenda today
The calendar is light again today so we will focus on market sentiment and how it affects risk assets and the USD. The US Dollar has been in an uptrend for months but has shown some signs of weakness lately. It fell more than 100 pips after the Fed decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and Chair Jerome Powell announced several such hikes in the coming meetings.
Although the market isn’t too happy with that, and comments from the Fed’s Bostic suggesting that the Fed could not keep up the pace of BPS hikes at every session yesterday, aren’t helping the black man. So the USD bullish momentum has stalled for the moment but there is nothing better to buy as all central banks are raising rates rapidly.
USD/JPY – buy signal
We bought USD/JPY as it has been in a strong uptrend for a long time and the buying pressure has gained incredible momentum in the last few months after the start of the conflict in Ukraine when the safe haven JPY should have turned bullish and this pair should have turned bearish. As a result, we opened many buy signals during this period, most of which closed in profit. We opened another buy signal yesterday when this pair retreated to the 50 SMA (yellow) where we decided to go long.
USD/JPY 240 minute chart
EUR/USD – sell signal
EUR USD has also been in a bearish trend since last summer which has recently picked up pace as the USD has turned quite bullish. The euro, on the other hand, is turning bearish as the ECB has yet to set a date for the first rate hike. So we sold this pair as it is declining higher and we decided to do it again yesterday after the upsidedown pin which is a sell signal.
EUR/USD 240 minute chart
Holding at our Terra LUNA buy signal
Last month we decided to buy the Terra LUNA token as these cryptocurrency has been the most bullish of the majors for many months as it continued to make higher highs through late March. LUNA/USD retreated to the low $40s in January but the 200 SMA (purple) held twice as support and buyers resumed the uptrend.
Terra LUNA reached almost $120 earlier this month but turned back again, although this time it was the 100 SMA (green) that served as support where we decided to open a buy signal. LUNA/USD started to bounce off the support zone again but the 20-day SMA (grey) halted the upleg and now the price is turning back down, breaking below the 200 SMA and trading below $50 but there is one last one Support around $45.
LUNA/USD – daily chart
Should we BTC Buy when it approaches $30,000 support?
BTC/USD hit a new record high of $69,000 last November, but sellers have been in control since then. The last attempt to turn bullish ended at the 200-day SMA (purple) and the price returned back below $40,000. Now the price is trending below $35,000 where the first support stands while the next is around $30,000 where we aim to buy again.
Will Bitcoin Support Hold?
Source: Crypto News Deutsch