So-called “experts” are sacrificing their credibility with sovereign ignorance of Bitcoin
Recent examples of so-called “experts” being confident but wrong about Bitcoin speak will come back to haunt them.
This is an opinion editorial by Mickey Koss, a West Point graduate student with a degree in Economics. He spent four years in the infantry before joining the Finance Corps.
Barely a week into 2023, and I’ve seen Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano debate with Michael Shellenberger and Joe Rogan interview Peter Zeihan. While these media impressions may seem disjointed, there is a common thread between the two: experts in different fields confidently profess uninformed opinions on Bitcoin.
Zeihan’s misunderstandings can be heard in the last 20 minutes of the interview. In fact, our friend Guy Swann just filmed a nearly 90-minute episode of Bitcoin Audible dedicated to tearing down Zeihan’s analysis. Café Bitcoin recently did the same in the first half of its January 9, 2023 episode.
Shellenberger made it a little easier to locate his misunderstandings by apparently visiting Pomp’s podcast for the sole purpose of demonstrating his complete and utter ignorance.
<figcaption><em>Quelle</em></figcaption> </figure><p>Ich denke, eine der relevantesten Fragen, die man sich nach diesen Gesprächen stellen sollte, lautet: Wie ist einer dieser beiden Herren überhaupt qualifiziert, solche Einschätzungen vorzunehmen?
How can someone feel so comfortable saying something they so obviously know so little about? If these two are so confident with opinions that are so obviously wrong and uninformed, why would I trust them with anything else?
While discussing these two interviews in a small group, one of the members said something that inspired the idea behind this article:
“Right now they both feel safe in their claims. In the next bull cycle, these clips will haunt them and tarnish their credibility.”
–Alex BrammerBitcoin Today Coalition (BTC) board member
He even turned that sentiment into a tweet, which can be seen below:
One trait common to Bitcoiners is their low time preference — a willingness to sacrifice short-term comfort for long-term gains rather than follow whims.
These individuals are the embodiment of what the fiat system is doing to people, a symptom of what happens when money stops sending clear price signals. Their time preference is so skewed that they willingly sacrifice their long-term credibility for short-term notoriety. They do it mindlessly, with little understanding of what they are even criticizing, let alone the long-term implications of what they are saying. They do it because they have to, lest they be cast out as simpletons like the rest of us.
What happened when you just said, “I don’t know”? Perhaps more importantly, what happens when all of these naysayers have been proven not only wrong, but completely, spectacularly, and utterly wrong in every way?
I predict that those who choose to speak sloppily will quickly lose any semblance of credibility they once had in the coming months and years.
The cure for Gell Mann amnesia is absurdity
“In short, the Gell-Mann amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on a subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In my show business. You read the article and see that the journalist doesn’t understand the facts or the problems. Often the article is so wrong that it actually tells the story backwards—cause and effect are reversed. I call these the “wet roads cause rain” stories. Paper is full of them.
“Anyway, one reads with despair or amusement the numerous errors in a story, and then turns the page to national or international affairs and reads as if the rest of the newspaper were somehow more specific about Palestine than the nonsense one was reading… You turn the page around and forget what you know.”
– Michael Crichton
Bitcoin is the orange pill that wakes you up from the Matrix, yes, but what if the narrative gets too absurd? What if the critiques and criticisms became so obviously wrong that these so-called experts were no longer respected, let alone listened to?
I was a Zeihan fan. I found his books interesting and informative. They seemed well thought out and thoroughly researched. But after this interview I don’t know what to think anymore. After hearing him speak, before even hearing his bitcoin critique, all I really heard was a Quasi-Automat; a character well practiced at speaking in polished bits of sound. His bitcoin analysis was so slick, well worded and confident. Boy was he confident. And everything he said was absolutely wrong.
I see the next few years as the abyss for the dissolution of today’s experts. Similar to the economist’s uncle in the dystopian story “The Mandibles” these experts will have answers to everything and yet will not be able to explain anything. Slowly but surely, people will realize that the world these “experts” created in their theoretical minds no longer exists. Reality will eventually collapse.
But you don’t have to wait for that.
Once you understand Bitcoin, you understand that the long-term price is slowly approaching infinity as central banks gradually and then suddenly add monetary units to the system to manipulate the cost of capital at their discretion.
Saving in Bitcoin might be a bumpy road for those who don’t yet see the value, but in my eyes it’s the safest thing I own. As I reflect on this turbulent week in the bear market thinking about it, I feel like I’ve never been more optimistic than I am right now.
This is a guest post by Mickey Koss. The opinions expressed are solely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Source: Crypto News Deutsch